Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Marinas26 Conference to Highlight AI's Impact on Marina Operations

25 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Marina Industries Association (MIA) has unveiled the comprehensive program for Marinas26, its biennial conference and trade exhibition, scheduled for 24-27 May 2026 at the RACV Royal Pines Resort on Queensland’s Gold Coast. Embracing the 'Future Smart' theme, the event aims to delve into emerging trends and technologies poised to reshape the marina and boatyard sector across the Asia-Pacific region. - read more

Explore the 2026 Sanctuary Cove International Boat Show's Stellar Exhibitor Line-Up

17 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Sanctuary Cove International Boat Show (SCIBS) is set to make a grand return to the Gold Coast from May 21 to 24, 2026. As the Southern Hemisphere's largest marine event, SCIBS 2026 promises an unparalleled showcase of marine excellence, drawing over 45,000 boating enthusiasts, industry leaders, and luxury lifestyle seekers. - read more

BIA Calls for Balanced Approach to Sand Flathead Fishing Closures in Tasmania

01 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has recently addressed the Tasmanian Government regarding the proposed closure of sand flathead recreational fishing zones in south-eastern Tasmania, set to commence on 1 March 2026. This initiative aims to protect declining sand flathead populations; however, the BIA emphasises the necessity of a balanced approach that considers both environmental sustainability and the socio-economic well-being of local communities. - read more

BIA Endorses Dolans Bay Marina's Infrastructure Enhancement

01 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has expressed its support for the proposed infrastructure upgrades at Dolans Bay Marina, recognising the project's potential to significantly improve boating access and safety for individuals of all ages and abilities. This endorsement aligns with the BIA's commitment to promoting safe, responsible, and enjoyable boating experiences across Australia. - read more

BIA Calls for Urgent Improvements to River Murray Boating Infrastructure

01 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has raised concerns regarding the deteriorating state of essential boating infrastructure along the River Murray, emphasising the need for immediate action to ensure the safety and accessibility of these facilities for the boating community. - read more

Club Marine Introduces Specialized Insurance for Race Boats

24 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

Club Marine, Australia's leading boat insurance provider, has unveiled a new insurance policy tailored specifically for race boats during storage and transit. This initiative aims to support participants in the Australian Offshore Superboat Championship by offering coverage for accidental loss, damage, theft, or malicious damage while the boats are on land and on their trailers. - read more

Click for more Finance News