Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Vessev's Electric Hydrofoiling Vessels Set to Transform Swan River Transport

10 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

New Zealand-based company Vessev is set to revolutionise water transport in Western Australia by introducing a fleet of electric hydrofoiling vessels on Perth's Swan River. In partnership with the ENAUTIC Group, Vessev aims to provide a sustainable and efficient solution to the region's transportation needs. - read more

ACCC Halts BRP's Sale of Telwater to Yamaha

10 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has recently blocked the proposed sale of Telwater Pty Ltd., one of Australia's largest aluminium boat manufacturers, from BRP Inc. to Yamaha Motor Australia. This decision ensures that Telwater remains under BRP's ownership for the foreseeable future. - read more

ATSB Releases Preliminary Findings on RSV Nuyina Grounding

03 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has released a preliminary report detailing the circumstances surrounding the grounding of the Australian Antarctic Division's research vessel, RSV Nuyina, off Heard Island on October 13, 2025. The incident occurred during drone survey operations near uncharted sea floor areas. - read more

WA Government Approves Cockatoo Island Aviation and Marine Hub

03 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Western Australian government has granted final approval for the construction of a $300 million aviation and marine hub on Cockatoo Island, located in the Buccaneer Archipelago, approximately 130 kilometres north of Derby. The project, spearheaded by privately owned company Crestlink, aims to establish a comprehensive logistics hub to service the offshore oil and gas industry. - read more

Ocius to Deliver Fleet of Bluebottle Uncrewed Surface Vessels

03 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Government has committed $176 million to acquire a fleet of Australian-designed and built Bluebottle uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) from Ocius Technology. This investment aims to bolster the Royal Australian Navy's undersea warfare capabilities by providing persistent, long-range intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations. - read more

Queensland Trawlers to Implement Mandatory Electronic Monitoring

03 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Queensland Government has announced a mandatory rollout of electronic camera monitoring systems on 90% of trawlers operating within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. This initiative aims to monitor and reduce the bycatch of endangered species, ensuring sustainable fishing practices in one of the world's most vital marine ecosystems. - read more

Click for more Finance News