Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

BIA Advocates for Enhanced Support in Australia's Marine Manufacturing Sector

16 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association Ltd (BIA) has recently called upon all levels of Australian government to provide strategic support to the nation's marine manufacturing and recreational boating sector. This appeal comes in response to a significant skills shortage that poses a threat to the industry's economic potential. - read more

Experience the Sydney International On-Water Boat Show 2025

16 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Sydney International On-Water Boat Show is set to make a grand return from 13 to 16 November 2025 at Darling Harbour. This four-day event promises to be a highlight for boating enthusiasts and industry professionals alike, showcasing Australia's vibrant marine lifestyle. - read more

Australian Superyacht Conference 2026: Embracing a New Era

16 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Superyacht Australia has announced the return of the Australian Superyacht Conference in 2026, introducing a refreshed format and a new location in Sydney. Traditionally held on the Gold Coast in May ahead of the Sanctuary Cove International Boat Show, the conference will now take place immediately following the inaugural Sydney Charter Show, creating an exciting week of activity for Australia's growing superyacht sector. - read more

Australia's Marine Industry Surges to $229 Billion Economic Output

08 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's marine industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth, achieving an economic output of $229 billion in 2023. This represents a 19% increase compared to two years prior, as reported by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS). The sector now supports 712,000 full-time equivalent jobs, marking a 52% rise in employment. - read more

Australia and Vanuatu Forge $325 Million Nakamal Agreement

08 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to bolster regional partnerships, Australia and Vanuatu have signed the Nakamal Agreement, a $325 million bilateral treaty aimed at enhancing economic, security, and cultural cooperation. Named after Vanuatu's traditional communal meeting place, the 'nakamal,' this agreement underscores the deepening ties between the two nations. - read more

Australia's $8 Billion Investment in Nuclear Submarine Shipyard

08 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia has announced a substantial investment of $8 billion to establish new defense facilities in Western Australia, as part of its commitment to the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal. This initiative aims to enhance the nation's naval capabilities and strengthen its strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region. - read more

Click for more Finance News