Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

BIA's 'Go Boating SA' Initiative Aims to Boost Safe Boating Practices

04 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has recently unveiled the 'Go Boating SA' campaign, a strategic initiative designed to promote safe and enjoyable boating experiences across South Australia. This campaign underscores the BIA's commitment to enhancing the state's marine industry and fostering community engagement. - read more

Sydney Boat Show 2026: Bigger and Better at Sydney Olympic Park

04 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Sydney Boat Show is set to make a grand return in 2026, with plans to expand its exhibition at Sydney Olympic Park from July 30 to August 2. This development marks a significant evolution for the event, aiming to provide an enhanced experience for boating enthusiasts and industry professionals alike. - read more

BIA and AFTA Unite to Bolster Australia's Boating and Fishing Industries

04 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move for Australia's outdoor recreation sector, the Boating Industry Association (BIA) and the Australian Fishing Trade Association (AFTA) have formalised an agreement to collaborate more closely. This partnership is designed to benefit their combined membership base and bolster support for boat-based fishing across the nation. - read more

Australian Boating Industry Reports Steady $10.2 Billion Turnover

27 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian boating industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining a steady turnover of $10.2 billion for the 2024-25 financial year. This figure, consistent with the previous year's record, underscores the sector's stability amidst evolving economic conditions. - read more

Yamaha Maintains Leadership in Australia's Marine Market Amidst Industry Stabilisation

27 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

As the Australian boating industry approaches the 2025 summer season, recent data indicates a stabilising market with Yamaha retaining its position as the most-searched marine brand. According to Retain Media's Q3 2025 Marine Market Brand Consideration Report, Yamaha holds an 8.4% share of search interest, maintaining its lead despite a modest 7.6% quarterly decline. - read more

BIA and AFTA Forge Partnership to Strengthen Australia's Boating and Fishing Industries

27 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move for Australia's outdoor recreation sector, the Boating Industry Association (BIA) and the Australian Fishing Trade Association (AFTA) have formalised an agreement to collaborate more closely. This partnership is designed to benefit their combined membership base and bolster support for boat-based fishing across the nation. - read more

Click for more Finance News