Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Delays in Australia's Strategic Fleet Tender Raise Maritime Security Concerns

20 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian government's plan to establish a strategic fleet of Australian-flagged ships has encountered delays, raising concerns about the nation's maritime resilience and security. The initiative, designed to bolster Australia's shipping capabilities and provide vessels for crises, emergencies, or defence support, has missed its initial deadlines, prompting industry experts to highlight growing vulnerabilities in trade and national security. - read more

Artificial Intelligence Sets Course for Maritime Competitiveness in 2026

20 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The maritime industry is undergoing a significant transformation in 2026, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, and cloud collaboration. These technologies are reshaping ship design, operations, and sustainability, setting the stage for a new era of maritime competitiveness. - read more

Sydney Boat Show 2026: Bigger and Better at Sydney Olympic Park

12 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association Ltd (BIA) has officially announced that the 2026 Sydney Boat Show will take place at the Sydney Showgrounds at Sydney Olympic Park from Thursday, 30 July to Sunday, 2 August 2026. This four-day event is set to expand following the success of its debut in 2025 and strong interest from the industry. - read more

Australian Superyacht Conference 2026: New Format and Sydney Location

12 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Superyacht Australia has announced the return of the Australian Superyacht Conference in 2026, introducing a refreshed format and a new location in Sydney. Traditionally held on the Gold Coast in May ahead of the Sanctuary Cove International Boat Show, the conference will now take place immediately following the inaugural Sydney Charter Show, creating an exciting week of activity for Australia’s growing superyacht sector. - read more

d’Albora Marinas Strengthens Southeast Queensland Presence with New Acquisition

12 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

d’Albora Marinas, Australia’s largest premium marina and hospitality network, has expanded its national footprint with the acquisition of Tin Can Bay Marina, strengthening its presence in Southeast Queensland and reinforcing its commitment to investing in standout coastal destinations. - read more

BIA's 'Go Boating SA' Initiative Aims to Boost Safe Boating Practices

04 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has recently unveiled the 'Go Boating SA' campaign, a strategic initiative designed to promote safe and enjoyable boating experiences across South Australia. This campaign underscores the BIA's commitment to enhancing the state's marine industry and fostering community engagement. - read more

Click for more Finance News