Housing Crisis in Australia: Deeper Trouble Ahead

6

Issues such as high construction costs have accelerated the cost of building in major cities at a rate that outpaces property price growth. It increasingly appears more financially sound to purchase an existing home rather than build a new one.

According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's research director, "the cost of construction is yet to decline and it remains approximately 30% more expensive to build or renovate now compared to pre-COVID times," reflecting a prolonged period of inflating expenses.

SQM Research's founder and managing director, Louis Christopher, has expressed concern. He pointed out that "indicators show no signs of an imminent increase in housing supply," and has projected that there will be only "138,000 new dwellings completed by FY25."

PropTrack's executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, noted, "Building approvals have plunged to their lowest in a decade. The pandemic-induced rise in construction costs, labour shortages, and 12-year high interest rates have severely impacted new constructions."

Adding to the discourse, Ben Burston, chief economist at Knight Frank, warned that "restoring high levels of housing construction will be a laborious task" due to the steep increments in both construction and financing costs.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that only 163,800 homes were approved for construction in the year up to May. This is 32% (or 76,200 homes) short of the Albanese government’s 240,000 annual housing target.

It is crucial to note that the Albanese government’s target of 240,000 homes annually is unprecedented. The closest the nation came to meeting such a goal was in 2017 when 223,600 homes were built, which was still 7% below the target. This was achieved with a cash rate of 1.5%, compared to the current rate of 4.35%.

Back in 2017, builders also faced lower construction costs (some 40% less than today) and did not compete for labour with state government infrastructure projects. In comparison, data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) show that nearly 3,000 construction firms went bankrupt in the 2023-2024 financial year, reducing the sector’s productive capacity.

Given these macroeconomic conditions, it seems highly improbable for the Albanese government’s housing targets to be met, and dwelling completion rates are likely to remain low in the near term.

Ultimately, a long-term resolution to Australia’s housing shortage may necessitate reducing net overseas migration, hence easing the population demand below the nation’s housing and infrastructure supply capacity.

If these structural issues aren't addressed, Australia's housing crisis is poised to exacerbate.

Published:Tuesday, 16th Jul 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Increasing Number of Qualified Financial Advisers Opt Out of Practice 11 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori Recent analysis from WealthData indicates a growing trend among financial advisers in Australia, where a significant portion of those who have successfully passed the financial adviser exam are opting not to practice. As of now, 5,096 individuals, representing 33.31% of active advisers, have chosen not to proceed into practice after passing the exam—up from 28.36% a year prior. - read more

Melbourne's Housing Market: A Prime Opportunity For Buyers 11 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently surprised many by maintaining the interest rate at 3.85%, against expectations of a cut. This decision is seen as a measure to continue moderating inflation, but it simultaneously delays potential spikes in the housing market, providing a favorable window for prospective homebuyers. In particular, Melbourne's current market presents significant value, offering a promising opportunity for those looking to enter the property market. - read more

Improving EOFY Planning: The Call for ATO Portal Access for Advisers 09 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori In a recent discussion, James O'Reilly, Director and Financial Planner at Northeast Wealth, underscored the benefits that could come from granting financial advisers access to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) portal. Speaking on The ifa Show, O'Reilly proposed that this access would significantly simplify the services financial advisers provide to clients, particularly at tax time and the end of the financial year (EOFY). - read more

RBA Holds Rates Steady, Shocking Markets and Shifting Economic Expectations 09 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to keep the official cash rate steady at 3.85%, taking many by surprise after expectations of a 25-basis-point cut had built up in financial circles. This unexpected move comes amid recent data indicating easing inflation and weaker than anticipated economic growth, conflicting with prior predictions of a cut. - read more

RBA to Continue Interest Rate Cuts Amid High Unemployment 08 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its trajectory of incremental interest rate reductions, according to insights from leading financial analysts at ANZ. Recent data from the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series revealed a rise from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June, suggesting a potential rebound in job advertisements after previous declines. Despite a stable unemployment rate and hours-based underutilisation rate since mid-2024, the Australian labour market remains strained. - read more

RBA Poised for Cash Rate Cut Amid Inflationary Trends 07 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its forthcoming monetary policy announcement, economic analysts anticipate a further reduction in the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This prediction, supported by Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 88% of participating experts foresee a cut that would lower the interest rate to 3.6%, aligning the decision with the recent decline in both headline and core inflation to the central bank's target range of two to three percent. - read more